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New Polls Show Warren Edging Ahead of Brown in U.S. Senate Race

Two recent polls show Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren has more support from female voters, but Sen. Scott Brown has more support from independents.

Democrat Elizabeth Warren leads Republican Scott Brown by several percentage points in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race, according to two separate polls.

One poll, conducted by the Western New England University Polling Institute from Sept. 6-13, found that 50 percent of people interviewed would vote for Warren if the election were to be held today, while 44 percent would vote for Brown. Six percent were still undecided. The poll's margin of error is estimated to be 4 percent.

The other poll, conducted from Sept. 13 through Sept. 16 by Public Policy Polling, found Warren leads Brown by 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters. 

Tim Vercellotti, director of the Polling Institute and a professor of political science at Western New England University, said Warren might be riding a wave of enthusiasm among Democrats after the party’s presidential nominating convention. 

“Democrats are more fired up than independent voters at the moment,” Vercellotti said. “If that persists, that could pose a problem for Brown, who will need a strong turnout of independent voters to win re-election.”

Polling Breakdown

Among independent voters, Brown still leads Warren by a landslide. About 57 percent of independent voters said they would vote for Brown. But along party lines, among Democrats, Warren leads 89 percent to six percent over brown, and among Republicans, Brown leads 91 percent to four percent.  

Warren was also found to appeal more to women voters, with 55 percent saying they perfer Warren and 40 percent supporting Brown. But among male voters, Brown leads Warren 49 percent to 44 percent. 

Brown also holds a five-point advantage over Warren among likely voters ages 30 to 49, and the candidates are roughly even among voters ages 50 to 64. Warren, however, has a sizable lead among voters ages 65 and older, with 63 percent to Brown’s 35 percent.

Read more about the poll results and its methodology here

Who do you think will win the election, and why? Tell us in the comments. 

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